WE WILL ADD LOW CHC/SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR SUN AFTN AS PER THE FCSTD
-22C H5 COLD POOL THE MODELS ARE BRINGING ACRS OUR CWA. THAT POOL IS
COLD ENUF TO BRING FCSTD TT FIELDS INTO THE MID 50S AS WELL AS
GENERATE SOME LOW CAPES AND SFC LI INDICES AS LOW AS -5C. THE FCSTD
7C/KM LAPSE RATE IS NO SLOUCH EITHER. FCSTD SOUNDINGS HAVE THAT
LOADED GUN LOOK THAT WOULD MAKE BON JOVI LYRICAL. FCSTD WIND FIELDS
ARE NOT THAT STRONG BELOW H7, BUT MIGHT HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
EVAP COOLING THAT WOULD ENHANCE THEM (MAYBE THE FIRST SVR TSRA
OF THE YEAR?). WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW DUE TO THE FCSTD NW SFC
FLOW THAT WILL LESSEN CONVERGENCE PLUS ANY ACCELERATION (OR
DECELERATION BEYOND 6 HOURS) OF THAT STRONG SHORT WAVE WOULD THROW
OFF THE TIMING AS WE/LL NEED THE DAYTIME HEATING WHICH AS OF TDY IS
NEARLY PERFECT. MOS GUID DATASETS MAX TEMPS LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnat...on=0&max=14
I have no life for looking at Philadelphia AFD's :(
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment